Another round of severe weather looks to take place across the Northern Plains on Friday, June 20, 2025. But will storms actually develop? And what happens if they do?

Let's dive into the details...

June 20, 2025:

Another round of severe weather is anticipated across portions of North Dakota, Minnesota, and northeastern South Dakota on Friday. A volatile environment will be in place across the region with plenty of instability, moisture, and shear in place. With this environment, storms will be capable of producing significant tornadoes. However, storms may not develop. But why?

A strong cap will be in place as a hot air mass overtakes the region. A cap is a layer of warm air in the atmosphere that delays or prevents the development of thunderstorms. Warm to hot 700mb temperatures will aid in delaying any convective initiation (thunderstorm development) across the region, particularly in southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and western Minnesota.

There is a high chance of storms not firing in this region, however, with very high instability of 4500-6000 j/kg of CAPE, dew points in the 70-75 F range, and enough shear in place, any storm that can develop, will pose a risk for all hazards including very large hail (greater than 2.50") and tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

How likely are we to see thunderstorm development? Most weather models agree that convective initiation is unlikely. However, I have highlighted the areas I think will have the best odds at seeing thunderstorms on Friday as well as areas that will most likely not see any thunderstorm development at all.

Every model is in general agreement with supercells and linear clusters of storms across eastern Montana, into North Dakota, and northern Minnesota during the evening and overnight hours into Saturday (areas in black). Further south and east (areas in red) will encounter much warmer temperatures and as a result a stronger cap which will completely prevent any thunderstorm development despite a favorable environment in place.

Quick Final Thoughts and Recap...

A potent environment will be in place across the Northern Plains on Friday, June 20, 2025 with all hazards possible. However, a strong cap in place will limit or potentially prevent thunderstorm development. If storms develop, tornadoes (some strong), very large hail (>2.50"), and damaging winds (60-75+ mph) will all be possible in southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and western Minnesota around sunset into the late evening hours.

Supercells are possible in eastern Montana, central/northeast North Dakota, and northern Minnesota as well. While the threat will not be as high, those storms will still be capable of an isolated tornado, large hail, and damaging winds in the early evening to overnight hours.

CHASE DAYS:

I return to work tomorrow (yes I still work a full time job) but will be monitoring trends and real time observations throughout the day for a potential chase tomorrow. If things start to trend towards convective initiation, I will be chasing after work. However, as of now that is looking unlikely. My next opportunity for any chases will be next week, if any.

Conclusion...

If you live in these areas I mentioned, please monitor your local forecast, heed all active National Weather Service alerts when they are issued, and have a plan in place if shelter is needed. While storms are not likely, all it takes is one storm to develop for things to pose a risk so it is important to stay weather aware. Stay tuned for updates on my social media pages, which you can find linked below, as well!