Severe weather is already making a return to the Northern Plains and it looks to stay that way for at least the next week. But what can we expect with this pattern?

Let's dive into the details...

June 13, 2025:

The start of an active pattern for severe weather across the Northern Plains will begin this afternoon from central Montana into the central High Plains. Supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards, particularly across Montana/Wyoming into Nebraska/Colorado. A small but non-zero chance at a tornado does exist as well. These supercells are expected to continue into the evening hours before dissipating after sunset.

June 14, 2025:

Much like today's threat, supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards tomorrow across the same areas, particularly across Montana/Wyoming into South Dakota/Nebraska. A small but non-zero chance at a tornado does exist as well. These supercells are expected to continue into the evening hours before dissipating after sunset. An MCS is possible across western South Dakota as storms move east but details remain unclear on the longevity of this scenario.

June 15, 2025:

Once again, another similar setup compared to the previous two days will be in place across Montana/Wyoming into South Dakota/Nebraska. Supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds look to be the main hazards on Sunday with an isolated tornado threat not out of the question. An MCS is possible in the western portion of the forecast area as storms move east with time.

A much more "juiced" environment will be in place compared to the previous days with high CAPE (convective available potential energy) and plentiful moisture. Other storms *may* develop further east in the day as well although this is a more conditional threat and not a guarantee. I highlighted this area for this potential as well, however. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threat with any storms that fire in areas east.

June 16, 2025:

Details become much less clear as far as specific hazards after Sunday, June 15th, however a very similar setup will likely be in place across South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska on Monday, June 16th. A much more "juiced" environment is likely to setup across the region with very high mixed-layer CAPE (convective available potential energy), plentiful moisture, and moderate shear in place.

Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across the northern and western portions of the forecast area before storms grow upscale posing a damaging wind and hail threat. A MCS is possible as these storms grow upscale into a line as they move east/southeast where a mainly damaging wind threat will exist. While details on storm development and evolution are still uncertain, the overall pattern favors a scenario such as this. Discrete supercell potential may exist across the southwest portions of the forecast area as well.

June 17, 2025:

The overall pattern will continue to favor scattered thunderstorm development across Nebraska and Iowa on Tuesday, June 17th. An MCS threat does appear possible however details regarding storm development and evolution remain a little uncertain. However, I expect severe weather across Nebraska/Iowa and perhaps into northern Kansas and Missouri as sufficient moisture and instability will be in place across this region. The threat will then shift east into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on June 18th.

Quick Final Thoughts and Recap...

A favorable pattern for daily severe weather is in place for the Northern Plains over the next 5-7 days or so as an upper level ridge holds strong across the Southern Plains of the United States. Ample southwesterly flow will combine with deep moisture and instability across the region over this period where supercell and MCS threats will exist from June 13th until at least June 18th.

The threat will slowly shift and expand east over the next few days where large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado threat will exist across the Northern Plains and Midwest during this period before the pattern becomes a bit more unclear. Flooding may also be an issue in areas that have already seen plenty of rain over the last couple of days, particularly in hard hit northeastern South Dakota and central Minnesota.

CHASE DAYS:

Currently, I am monitoring the trends across Montana/Wyoming/South Dakota for a possible chase tomorrow (June 14th) for supercell potential. As of now, though, I am not chasing this threat. However, I am liking the looks of Sunday-Tuesday and will likely be out for these events. While tornado potential will be low, supercell/MCS structure could be photogenic on Sunday. Monday currently has my highest interest as it may be the most robust day for severe weather (particularly close to home in eastern South Dakota) during this stretch. Tuesday will all depend on where the best environment sets up but as of now I plan to chase.

Conclusion...

If you live in these areas I mentioned, please monitor your local forecast, heed all active National Weather Service alerts when they are issued, and have a plan in place if shelter is needed. It will be a busy period for severe weather for at least the next week so it is top priority to be prepared for when severe weather strikes. Stay tuned for updates on my social media pages, which you can find linked below, as well during this time!