Bang! Last night, the sun fired off a long duration M8.2 solar flare with an earth-directed full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with it! Aurora is possible into the United States! What does this mean?

Let's dive into the details...

Solar Flare and Associated CME...

Last night around 00:05 UTC (7:05 pm CDT 5/30/2025) a strong (and long duration) M.82 solar flare was launched from sunspot region 4100 and with it, a full halo earth-directed CME! These CME's are large ejections of plasma from our sun that launch into our solar system and sometimes, when they hit our planet, the energy associated disturbs our planet's magnetic shield resulting in the auroral ovals to charge up.

Stronger CME impact + higher disturbance of impact = higher aurora viewing potential!

Timing and Expectations...

So what can we expect? You may have already seen plenty of posts and hype from multiple sources with either similar information or completely different perspectives. Here are my thoughts...

+ Timing of the CME impact is going to be the biggest thing to watch for. Right now, most models are predicting an impact around 7 am CDT (+/-7 hours) on Sunday, June 1, 2025. The stronger the CME is upon impact, the better the chances of it lasting into the evening hours on June 1-2, 2025. However, if it is a weaker impact, the odds of it lasting begin to fade meaning the best viewing will be limited to those further north in the United States and Canada.

+ Strength and magnetic field orientation (Bz) needs to be directed southward (-Bz). This allows for a more charged up auroral oval resulting in expanded viewing of aurora, which favors aurora further into lower latitudes. The deeper the -Bz, the better the viewing potential for middle and lower latitudes. However, if the Bz is predominately a northward orientation (+Bz), aurora viewing begins to diminish the further south you are located.

Be sure to check for updates on my social media (links below) and Space Weather apps such as Space Weather Live (the one I use) to see live data and observations so you don't miss out on seeing the aurora!

What are my thoughts?

First off, it is very important to understand, aurora is NEVER A GUARANTEE with any event! There is reason to believe, however, that great aurora viewing is possible tomorrow night, potentially deep into middle and lower latitudes of the United States!

But where is the best viewing exactly? Time will tell from an aurora perspective. Remember to check out my social media updates as well as live data first! If you have clear skies, it doesn't hurt to watch the northern sky after sunset when it is dark enough, especially from the Central and Northern United States. Make sure to charge up your camera batteries beforehand! There may be one issue, however... wildfire smoke to the east and increasing clouds to the west.

Wildfire smoke is already an issue across a majority of the United States specifically from the Northern Plains into the Southeast and unfortunately that will likely continue. Currently weather models indicate smoke from wildfires in Canada progressing through tomorrow night across the same areas.

At the same time, an upper level disturbance will develop across the Intermountain West and progress east into Monday, June 2, 2025 bringing increasing clouds and storm potential beginning on Monday afternoon. Widespread patchy cloud cover may be an issue across the Intermountain West on Sunday night, June 1, 2025.

It is important to note, while these models give an accurate idea of what is happening and how it evolves, this is never a true depiction of what actually happens. Some areas may see more or less cloud/smoke cover.

Pay attention to your local forecast with real time observations and make your best judgement on whether or not you will have an opportunity to see the aurora if everything pans out!

Quick Final Recap...

Aurora is possible tomorrow deep into the middle and lower latitudes of the United States as long as the CME impacts Earth at a reasonable time with a favorable data configuration as it disturbs Earth's magnetic field.

Most models indicate a CME arrival anywhere from 5-8 am CDT, not the most ideal timing for North America. However, this was a long duration event and if our CME is strong or even stronger than forecasted, North America would still have a fairly good chance to see aurora as long as data cooperates and we see prolonged -Bz. If this event reaches its highest ceiling, aurora would be possible deep into lower latitudes of the United States to states like Texas and Alabama!

Remember, while the potential of seeing the aurora is exciting, it is never a guarantee and important to keep expectations low!

Be sure to check out updates on my social media pages, which you can find below and pay attention to your local forecast for any cloud/smoke cover or clearing after sunset tomorrow night. Smoke may be an issue from the Upper Midwest to the Deep South and increasing cloud cover is possible across the Intermountain West.

Good luck and happy hunting!